By Bryan Curtiss
The 62nd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards air this upcoming Sunday on NBC. HBO's "The Pacific" is the most-nominated program with 24 Emmy nominations, followed by Fox's "Glee" with 19. This should be a very interesting Sunday night to see who wins and who comes up empty-handed in the approximately 25 categories that will be bestowed on television's biggest night. The BC Bulletin is predicting 14 of those big races.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Glee (Fox)- SHOULD WIN
Modern Family (ABC)- WILL WIN
Nurse Jackie (Showtime)
The Office (NBC)
30 Rock (NBC)
SNUBBED: The Big Bang Theory (CBS), Community (NBC)
DARKHORSE: Nurse Jackie (Showtime), 30 Rock (NBC)
I believe that the winner of this race will join a list of freshman laffers to win for Comedy Series- joining “The Phil Silvers Show” (1956), “The Monkees” (1967), "All in the Family" (1971), "Taxi" (1979), "Cheers" (1983), "The Cosby Show" (1985), "The Golden Girls" (1986), "The Wonder Years" (1988), "Frasier" (1994), "Arrested Development" (2004), and last, but not least, three-time defending champ "30 Rock" (2007). With 19 Nominations, "Glee" is the biggest sensation that is sweeping the television nation. However, the trendiest shows come up empty-handed on Emmy night. "Glee" only won two awards at the Creative Arts Awards, while rival freshman Comedy "Modern Family" won three. The big surprise going into Emmy week is that three-time defending champ "30 Rock" was blanked at the Creative Arts Ceremony, one year removed from the show's record 24 nominations. Anyway, back to the topic at hand. "Glee" should win because it has the most nominations for any series, it won the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy Series, it won the SAG for Best Cast in a Comedy Series, but on Sunday, it's a whole new ball game. Even the trendiest of shows failed to win- "Desperate Housewives", "Twin Peaks", "Moonlighting", "Miami Vice", "The Sopranos" all were favored to win for their breakout freshman years, but came up empty-handed, which is why I think that the Emmy will go to "Modern Family". Emmy voters love traditional family shows, as witnessed by their love and affection for "All in the Family" and "Everybody Loves Raymond". The last time an ABC show won in this category (1988 to be exact), Ronald Reagan was President and gas cost less that two bucks.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper- The Big Bang Theory (CBS)- SHOULD WIN
Larry David as Himself- Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Matthew Morrison as Will Schuester- Glee (Fox)
Tony Shalhoub as Adrian Monk- Monk (USA)- WILL WIN
Steve Carell as Michael Scott- The Office (NBC)
Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy- 30 Rock (NBC)
SNUBBED: David Duchovny as Hank Moody (Californication, Showtime), Thomas Jane as Ray Drecker (Hung, HBO), Joel McHale as Jeff Winger (Community, NBC)
It should all go down to a battle of who has the best tapes. Based on this theory, Tony Shalhoub should win his fourth Emmy for "Monk". Shalhoub submitted the series finale, in which his OCD-afflicted detective finally solves his wife's murder. However, be on the lookout for a possible win by Parsons, as he has a breakout scene in his reel in which his character drunkenly accepts an award on stage, and (1) Emmy voters love drunks- as witnessed by soap star Maura West's win earlier this summer, and (2) it shows that Parsons's character is a winner- a la Dame Maggie Smith in "California Suite" (ok, not really, but you get the picture).
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Lea Michele as Rachel Berry- Glee (Fox)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Christine Campbell- The New Adventures of Old Christine (CBS)
Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton- Nurse Jackie (Showtime)- WILL/SHOULD WIN
Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope- Parks and Recreation (NBC)
Tina Fey as Liz Lemon- 30 Rock (NBC)
Toni Collette as Tara Gregson- The United States of Tara (Showtime)
SNUBBED: Courteney Cox as Jules Cobb (Cougar Town, ABC)
It's an open and shut case as Emmy voters will reward Falco's pill-popping, adulterous nurse over the competition, which includes defending champ Collette as a wife and mother with multiple personalities. What could keep Collette from repeating is that there hasn't been a repeat in this race in nine years, after a 13-year stretch (1989 to 2001) with only five winners in this race (Candice Bergen- five times, Helen Hunt- four times, Patricia Heaton- twice/the last to repeat, Roseanne and Kirstie Alley- once). Since Patricia Heaton's repeat, there have been eight different winners (Jennifer Aniston, Debra Messing, Sarah Jessica Parker, Felicity Huffman, Louis-Dreyfus, America Ferrera, Fey, Collette), and Falco will be the ninth. Also, with her impending win, Falco will be the first woman to win Lead Acting Emmys for both Comedy and Drama, joining Robert Young (“Father Knows Best”- 1959 & “Marcus Welby M.D.”- 1970) and Carroll O'Connor (“All in the Family”- 1972, 1977-1979 & “In the Heat of the Night”- 1989) as the only actors to pull off this feat in Emmy history.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Chris Colfer as Kurt Hummel- Glee (Fox)
Neil Patrick Harris as Barney Stinson- How I Met Your Mother (CBS)- SHOULD WIN
Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy- Modern Family (ABC)
Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett- Modern Family (ABC)
Eric Stonestreet as Cameron Tucker- Modern Family (ABC)- WILL WIN
Jon Cryer as Alan Harper- Two and a Half Men (CBS)
SNUBBED: John Krasinski as Jim Halpert (The Office, NBC), Ed O'Neill as Jay Pritchett (Modern Family, ABC), Jeremy Piven as Ari Gold (Entourage, HBO), Rainn Wilson as Dwight Schrute (The Office, NBC)
DARKHORSE: Burrell, Harris
One word- Fizbo. That word was the episode of Stonestreet's reel, in which his character was dressed as a clown. That episode should be enough for Stonestreet to win. Be on the lookout for a possible upset by co-star Burrell, or by Neil Patrick Harris, who won two Emmys on Saturday night (for hosting the Tonys and his guest appearance on "Glee"). God forbid that Ducky from "Pretty in Pink" does the unthinkable...again.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Jane Lynch as Sue Sylvester- Glee (Fox)- WILL/SHOULD WIN
Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy- Modern Family (ABC)
Sofia Vergara as Gloria Delgado-Pritchett- Modern Family (ABC)
Kristen Wiig, Performer- Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Jane Krakowski as Jenna Maroney- 30 Rock (NBC)
Holland Taylor as Evelyn Harper- Two and a Half Men (CBS)
SNUBBED: Jane Adams as Tanya Skagle (Hung, HBO), Dianna Agron as Quinn Fabray (Glee, Fox), Jenna Fischer as Pam Halpert (The Office, NBC), Elizabeth Perkins as Celia Hodes (Weeds, Showtime)
DARKHORSE: You've got to be kidding...right?
If anyone but Lynch wins, it will be a tragedy bigger than Jon Cryer's win last year.
Outstanding Drama Series
Breaking Bad (AMC)
The Good Wife (CBS)
Lost (ABC)- SHOULD WIN
Mad Men (AMC)- WILL WIN
True Blood (HBO)
SNUBBED: Treme (HBO)
DARKHORSE: Breaking Bad (AMC), Dexter (Showtime), The Good Wife (CBS)
In any given year, be on the lookout for an upset winner ("Law & Order"- 1997, "Police Story"- 1976, "Cagney & Lacey"- 1985 & 1986, "thirtysomething"- 1988, "24"- 2006). However, "Mad Men" picked flawlessly in their submissions, and I don't think it's 100 percent possible for "Mad Men" to be denied their third consecutive win. "Lost", could win for submitting it's epic finale. But in my opinion, the finale was too long, and dragged a bit. That's what cost shows such as "St. Elsewhere", "M*A*S*H", "Seinfeld", "Cheers", and "Sex and the City" gold in their final seasons. "Mad Men" will join an elite list of shows- "The Defenders" (1962, 1963, 1964), "Hill Street Blues" (1981, 1982, 1983, 1984), "L.A. Law" (1989, 1990, 1991), and "The West Wing" (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003) to three-peat in this race, because "Mad Men" is the Cadillac of the Emmy kingdom (at least until the Bentley in the form of HBO's "Boardwalk Empire" comes in next year).
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Bryan Cranston as Walter H. White- Breaking Bad (AMC)- WILL WIN
Michael C. Hall as Dexter Morgan- Dexter (Showtime)- SHOULD WIN
Kyle Chandler as Eric Taylor- Friday Night Lights (DirectTV)
Hugh Laurie as Dr. Gregory House- House (Fox)
Matthew Fox as Dr. Jack Shepherd- Lost (ABC)
Jon Hamm as Don Draper- Mad Men (AMC)
SNUBBED: Simon Baker as Patrick Jane (The Mentalist, CBS), Jonathan Rhys-Meyers as King Henry VIII (The Tudors, Showtime)
Cranston is very likely to three-peat, because he won't be winning this race next year ("Breaking Bad" will not be eligible for next year's race because the show's fourth season does not begin until next July). However, Hall had a breakout year complete with Golden Globe and SAG wins, as his character went toe-to-toe with Guest Actor champ John Lithgow, and Dexter's wife Rita is found murdered in the bathtub. The race has been between Cranston and Hall, and it's a 70-30 race right now, with Cranston leading.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Kyra Sedgwick as Det. Brenda Johnson- The Closer (TNT)
Glenn Close as Patty Hewes- Damages (F/X)
Connie Britton as Tami Taylor- Friday Night Lights (NBC)
Julianna Margulies as Alicia Florrick- The Good Wife (CBS)- WILL/SHOULD WIN
Mariska Hargitay as Det. Olivia Benson- Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (NBC)
January Jones as Betty Draper- Mad Men (AMC)
SNUBBED: Anna Paquin as Sookie Stackhouse (True Blood, HBO)
DARKHORSE: None really, but watch out for Sedgwick
If anyone but Julianna Margulies wins, it will be a shocker, because Margulies is the clear choice to win this race. Connie Britton and January Jones should both be proud that they got to break on through with their first Emmy nods this year, after multiple snubs.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman- Breaking Bad (AMC)- SHOULD WIN
Martin Short as Joe Tobin- Damages (F/X)
Michael Emerson as Ben Linus- Lost (ABC)
Terry O'Quinn as John Locke- Lost (ABC)- WILL WIN
John Slattery as Roger Sterling- Mad Men (AMC)
Andre Braugher as Owen Thoreau Jr.- Men of a Certain Age (TNT)
SNUBBED: John Goodman as Creighton Bernette (Treme, HBO), Josh Holloway as Sawyer Ford (Lost, ABC)
DARKHORSE: Braugher, Emerson
If John Lithgow were nominated here like he belonged (he had as much screen time as Michael C. Hall on "Dexter" last season), he would have won, plain and simple. Terry O'Quinn is in the driver's seat right now. However, what's keeping O’Quinn from sealing a win is the fact that in the last 14 years in this category, there have been 14 different winners (the late Ray Walston, Hector Elizondo, Gordon Clapp, Michael Badalucco, Richard Schiff, Bradley Whitford, the late John Spencer, Joe Pantoliano, Michael Imperioli, William Shatner, Alan Alda, O'Quinn, Zeljko Ivanek, and Emerson). Braugher is a spoiler choice, because of his out-of-left field nomination which surprised everyone. Paul has once again garnered buzz for another great season on “Breaking Bad” and definitely deserves a statuette to call his own.
On a side note, condolences go out to Martin Short, whose wife, former actress Nancy Dolman passed away last Saturday.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Sharon Gless as Madeline Westen- Burn Notice (USA)
Rose Byrne as Ellen Parsons- Damages (F/X)
Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart- The Good Wife (CBS)
Archie Panjabi as Kalinda Sharma- The Good Wife (CBS)
Christina Hendricks as Joan Harris- Mad Men (AMC)- SHOULD WIN
Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olson- Mad Men (AMC)- WILL WIN
SNUBBED: Khandi Alexander as Ladonna Batiste (Treme, HBO), Michelle Forbes as Maryann Forrester (True Blood, HBO), S. Epatha Merkerson as Lt. Anita Van Buren (Law & Order, NBC)
It can be a race in which any of these six actresses could win. On paper, it is between "Mad Men" co-stars Hendricks and Moss. However, a possible out-of-left field upset could be on the horizon for Gless, who won two Emmys in the 1980s for her role on "Cagney & Lacey", and is a perennial Emmy vet. And Emmy voters revere their veteran actors, case in point- Betty White. The only thing missing was Khandi Alexander, who was snubbed for great work on HBO's "Treme", which itself got almost ignored by Emmy voters, much like "The Wire", which was also produced by the creators of "Treme".
Outstanding Made for Television Movie
Endgame- Masterpiece Classic (PBS)
Georgia O'Keeffe (Lifetime)
Moonshot (History Channel)
The Special Relationship (HBO)
Temple Grandin (HBO)- WILL WIN
You Don't Know Jack (HBO)- SHOULD WIN
Four of the six nominees should be proud to make it to Awards Sunday. This is really a two-person race. HBO has won this category 15 of the last 17 years, and there is no doubt they'll make it 16 out of 18, having one half of this year's nominees. "Temple Grandin" has the edge, because it is about a woman who overcame autism to get a doctorate degree. I would not be surprised if HBO's flick about famed assisted suicide advocate Dr. Jack Kevorkian, "You Don't Know Jack" comes out on top. Both "Grandin" and "Jack" shared the Made for TV Movie honors at the Bryan Awards.
The Pacific (HBO)- WILL/SHOULD WIN
Return to Cranford- Masterpiece Classic (PBS)
SNUBBED: The Prisoner (AMC)
DARKHORSE: Return to Cranford (PBS)
Barring any British-sentiment for the sequel to "Cranford", the sequel, like the original will lose to an epic HBO miniseries that was executive produced by Academy Award winner Tom Hanks. "The Pacific" has everything- love, conflict, victory, what doesn't "The Pacific" have? Oh, yeah, acting nominations. But, like "Band of Brothers" before it (which also failed to have an acting nomination), "The Pacific" will be honored, not because it was a World War II miniseries, but because it was 10 of the best hours of television of 2010.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Jeff Bridges as Jon Katz (A Dog Year, HBO)
Sir Ian McKellen as Number Two (The Prisoner, AMC)
Dennis Quaid as President Bill Clinton (The Special Relationship, HBO)
Michael Sheen as Prime Minister Tony Blair (The Special Relationship, HBO)
Al Pacino as Dr. Jack Kevorkian (You Don't Know Jack, HBO)- WILL/SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED: Jeremy Irons as Alfred Stieglitz (Georgia O'Keeffe, Lifetime)
DARKHORSE: Bridges or McKellen
Al Pacino has this bad girl wrapped up, marking this the second time he's won for portraying a real person (he was a quasi-fictionalized version of attorney Roy Cohn in "Angels in America"). Emmy voters love real people in this category, as witnessed in the past decade, as Emmy voters have honored portrayals of John Adams, Peter Sellers, Otto Frank, and Sir Winston Churchill (twice).
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Dame Maggie Smith as Mary (Capturing Mary, BBC)
Joan Allen as Georgia O'Keeffe (Georgia O'Keeffe, Lifetime
Dame Judi Dench as Miss Matty Jenkins (Return to Cranford, PBS)
Hope Davis as Hillary Clinton (The Special Relationship, HBO)
Claire Danes as Temple Grandin (Temple Grandin, HBO)- WILL/SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED: Caterina Scorsone as Alice (Alice, SyFy)
This Emmy is Claire Danes' to lose. 'Nuff said?
Emmy Trivia: The last time Danes was Emmy-nominated, she became the youngest Lead Actress nominee in Emmy history, for her role as Angela Chase in "My So-Called Life."
Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Series
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)- WILL WIN
The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien (NBC)- SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED: The Late Show with David Letterman (CBS)
DARKHORSE: Colbert, The Daily Show
"The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" has resided in this category for the last seven years. It's about time for a change, don't you think? For the first time in 27 years, late night titan David Letterman won't be competing in this race, as "The Late Show with David Letterman" was snubbed in this category for the first time since Letterman has been on CBS (Letterman was nominated as Executive Producer of "When Kids Grieve", which lost on Saturday night). In the 35 year history of the show, "Saturday Night Live" has only won this award twice (1976 and 1993), and submitted the Betty White episode, which won honors for White and director Don Roy King. Meanwhile, "The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien", which went out with a bang in January, submitted the finale, and "The Colbert Report" submitted an episode from Colbert's trip to Iraq, which won a Writing Emmy on Saturday, which means that this race is far from over.
Outstanding Reality-Competition Program
The Amazing Race (CBS)- WILL WIN
American Idol (Fox)- SHOULD WIN
Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
Project Runway (Lifetime)
Top Chef (Bravo)
SNUBBED: Survivor (CBS)
DARKHORSE: Wow…good one there
"The Amazing Race", like "The Daily Show" has a seven-year itch of its own. "The Amazing Race" was the first winner of this category. And the second. And the third. And so far, it's the only reality competition show to win this category. And as the years go by, it seems like there's a reality show that could unseat it. But every year, "The Amazing Race" has won, now having as many Emmys for Reality-Competition Program, as there are continents on the planet. Can "American Idol" finally get over the hump with their farewell to grouchy ex-judge Simon Cowell? Find out on Sunday.
SELECT CREATIVE ARTS WINNERS:
Guest Actor, Comedy Series: Neil Patrick Harris as Bryan Ryan- Glee (Fox)
Guest Actress, Comedy Series: Betty White, Host/Performer- Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Guest Actor, Drama Series: John Lithgow as Arthur Mitchell- Dexter (Showtime)
Guest Actress, Drama Series: Ann-Margret as Rita Wilson- Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (NBC)
Reality Host: Jeff Probst- Survivor (CBS)
Animated Program: Disney Prep and Landing (ABC)
Reality Program: Jamie Oliver's Food Revolution (ABC)
Variety Special: The Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)